The economic fundamentals were strong enough to ensure 6-6.5 per cent growth in GDP during 2003-04, while fiscal deficit will be under control, D C Gupta, finance secretary said on Friday.
Echoing Finance Minister Jaswant Singh's projection of a "significant" economic growth this year, economists on Friday pegged the GDP growth at 6-6.5 per cent but cautioned the Centre on increasing debt and fiscal deficit.
'India's sizeable forex reserves should help stem a possible fall in our currency.'
Gold reserves increased $1.54 billion to $32.68 billion in the reporting week.
The CAD was brought under control in 2013-14 after government imposed restrictions on import of gold. Following, this in 2014, certain restrictions were withdrawn.
ED and Directorate of Revenue Intelligence have detected a significant increase in the outflow of Indian money, specifically into four countries --Thailand, Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Foreign banks and private credit funds are queuing up to fund acquisitions by Indian companies who are buying out their local rivals. The Adani Group, Torrent Group, and the Hindujas have approached several foreign banks and private equity (PE) firms to fund their acquisitions. Global investors have about $2 trillion of funds to invest, and about $100 to $150 billion is set aside for India, according to an estimate by JP Morgan.
Global rating agency S&P on Tuesday said even though the US and the Euro zone are headed to recession, India is unlikely to face the impact given the "not so coupled" nature of its economy with the global economy. "Indian economy is a lot decoupled from the global economy than we normally think of, given its large domestic demand, even though you (India) are a net importer of energy. "But you have enough forex reserves on one hand and your companies have managed to maintain healthy balance sheets," Paul F Gruenwald, S&P global chief economist and managing director, told reporters in Mumbai.
Since end-May there has been volatility in the foreign exchange market.
Brent crude prices fell to $57 a barrel on Monday from $62 a barrel.
Nepal's decision to ban the import of non-essential items amid depleting forex reserves may hit Indian exports. The country's central bank - Nepal Rastra Bank - last week instructed commercial banks not to open letters of credit (LCs) for importing non-essential items. This is to prevent further decline of the country's foreign exchange reserves. However, it has not issued any formal communication yet.
'Valuations are very attractive, and most companies are cash-rich with strong dividend yields.'
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make INR (rupee) a hard currency, and till then, it must promote the settlement of global trade in the local currency, think tank GTRI said on Sunday. Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that transforming a currency into a hard currency is a complex process that hinges on several pivotal factors. Firstly, economic stability is paramount; a country must exhibit low and stable inflation, consistent growth, and a balanced trade environment.
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
'A strong foreign exchange reserve is the best safety net against global spillovers.'
The benchmark Indian crude oil basket is now estimated to average $77.88 a barrel for FY19, compared to the government's earlier estimate of $65 a barrel for the year and $56.39 for FY18
The banking system's liquidity slipped into deficit for the first time in the current financial year (2023-24) due to the imposition of the Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (I-CRR) for banks and outflows from goods and services tax (GST) payments, according to dealers. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows it injected Rs 23,644 crore on August 21. The last time liquidity was in deficit was on March 27, when the RBI injected Rs 45,575 crore.
Caution ahead of key consumer inflation data in the day also weighed.
The report, however, said a sustained weakness in USD against the emerging market forex remains a key risk to this view.
The RBI is widely expected to raise its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 8.00 per cent on Wednesday, its third such hike in four months after recent data showed both wholesale and retail inflation at multi-month highs.
The currency's relatively stable performance even as the US announced tapering showed India's better preparedness to deal with any fallout of such foreign fund outflows.
"RBI has been following a good policy. These are the ways of correcting international imbalances," Department of Economic Affairs Secretary R Gopalan said on the sidelines of a seminar organised by ICRIER in New Delhi.
Gold reserve also declined by $340 million to $30.55 billion.
He added that the risks can increase if the Chinese slowdown gathers more speed.
Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) chairman Deepak Parekh on Tuesday said that while the country's macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong and the recovery is in progress, the unpredictability of coronavirus will remain a key challenge. Owing to the second wave, the Indian economy is likely to mirror a similar trend seen in FY21, where the first half of the financial year is weaker and the second half is significantly stronger, he said. "I remain confident that India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong. Recovery is underway," Parekh said while addressing the 44th annual general meeting of HDFC Ltd. He said, the country's forex reserves and foreign direct investment inflows have scaled record highs, the capital markets are also buoyant and agriculture growth is expected to remain strong with food grain production estimated at over 305 million tonnes.
India's exports in April jumped nearly three-fold to USD 30.63 billion from USD 10.36 billion in the same month last year, according to government data released on Friday.
There has been a stellar rise for the Indian markets this far in calendar year 2021 (CY21) with the S&P BSE Sensex surging over 19 per cent. The gain in mid-and small-cap indices on the BSE has been sharper with both these indexes surging around 38 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively during this period. Rampant spread of Covid pandemic's Delta variant and the ensuing lockdown and mobility curbs across India, rising prices key commodities, including crude oil and its impact on inflation, possibility of tightening of policy stance by major global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) have been some of the key headwinds that the markets successfully negotiated during this period.
Email alarm made government close arbitrage window
India is facing no risk of recession or stagflation as macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy are strong, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday. Replying to a debate on price rise in the Lok Sabha, she said the GST collection and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are indicating that the Indian economy is getting more robust. The GST collection rose 28 per cent to touch the second-highest level of Rs 1.49 lakh crore in July. GST, introduced in July 2017, touched a record high of Rs 1.68 lakh crore in April 2022.
"The issue in Iraq is still an area of uncertainty.
The rising COVID-19 infections across the country are a matter of concern, but it may not impact the ongoing economic revival as one does not foresee lockdowns, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The economic revival will continue "unabated", Das said, asserting that there is no need for a downward revision of RBI's 10.5 per cent GDP growth forecast for FY22. Speaking at Times Network's India Economic Conclave, Das said, "We have 'insurance' to protect economic revival like a fast-paced vaccination drive, greater ability among people to follow COVID protocols", and one does not see lockdowns as well.
The report said that "we believe, institutions are more important than individuals" and ultimately what is important is the credibility and the independence of any institution and nothing else.
It was a year of big gains for equity investors.
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
The currency market won't care for our moans, groans, cries and sighs. The rupee will find its own level, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
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Chidambaram said recent measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India were aimed at reducing volatility in the financial market, where the rupee has dropped to record lows.
Overseas investors, as well as other key stakeholders, such as brokers, custodians, and clearing corporations, are yet to iron out critical issues, even as the shift towards a shorter trade settlement cycle approaches new phases. Several industry players said foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are still facing impediments over the trade confirmation timelines, foreign exchange (forex) bookings, and pre-funding requirements. This could potentially act as a roadblock when it comes to moving entirely to the new T+1 settlement cycle from next year.
The rupee appreciated by 0.27 per cent in June against the dollar.
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